CONVICTION.

Equity research, held accountable

Every pitch timestamped. Every call tracked.

Structured stock theses with the reasoning shown in full: situation, complication, numbered thesis pillars, MECE risk trees, comparable multiples, and an interactive DCF. Once published, a pitch is never edited retroactively; performance against SPY updates live from the pitch date.

Open pitches
7
Avg alpha vs SPY
+3.2%
Hit rate (beating SPY)
43%

Pitches

COST Costco WholesaleLONG Sample framework

A membership annuity mispriced as a retailer: renewal economics, untapped fee power, and e-commerce mix shift support durable double-digit earnings growth.

Pitched 2026-07-06 · 12 to 18 months horizon-0.5% vs SPY +1.9% · alpha -2.4%
MSFT MicrosoftLONG

An AI toll-road hiding inside a software annuity: Azure share gains and Copilot upsell monetize the AI capex the market treats as a leak.

Pitched 2026-07-15 · 12 to 24 months horizon+29.1% vs SPY +1.4% · alpha +27.7%
V VisaLONG

A toll on the disappearance of cash: an asset-light network that earns a fee on every transaction and takes none of the credit risk.

Pitched 2026-07-15 · 18 to 36 months horizon+7.2% vs SPY +1.4% · alpha +5.8%
GOOGL AlphabetLONG

The widest moat in tech — Search, YouTube, and a now-profitable cloud — compounding through the AI transition, with Waymo and DeepMind as free options on top.

Pitched 2026-07-15 · 12 to 24 months horizon-8.9% vs SPY +1.4% · alpha -10.3%
ASML ASML HoldingLONG

The one company AI cannot be built without: the sole supplier of the EUV lithography that every leading-edge chip requires, with a decade-plus moat and an installed-base annuity.

Pitched 2026-07-15 · 24 to 36 months horizon-7.1% vs SPY +1.4% · alpha -8.5%
LLY Eli LillyLONG

Selling the decade's biggest new drug market at a widening lead — the obesity TAM is early, under-penetrated, and Lilly's pipeline extends the moat.

Pitched 2026-07-15 · 24 to 48 months horizon+0.1% vs SPY +1.4% · alpha -1.3%
RACE FerrariLONG

Hermès with an engine: Ferrari caps production below demand and sells scarcity, earning luxury-goods economics the market still half-prices as an automaker.

Pitched 2026-07-15 · 24 to 48 months horizon+12.8% vs SPY +1.4% · alpha +11.4%
Educational research project. Nothing here is investment advice. Sample pitches exist to demonstrate the framework and are labeled as such.