CONVICTION.

Equity research, held accountable

Every pitch timestamped. Every call tracked.

Structured stock theses with the reasoning shown in full: situation, complication, numbered thesis pillars, MECE risk trees, comparable multiples, and an interactive DCF. Once published, a pitch is never edited retroactively; performance against SPY updates live from the pitch date.

Open pitches
7
Avg alpha vs SPY
+6.2%
Hit rate (beating SPY)
71%

Pitches

COST Costco WholesaleLONG Sample framework

A membership annuity mispriced as a retailer: renewal economics, untapped fee power, and e-commerce mix shift support durable double-digit earnings growth.

Pitched 2026-07-06 · 12 to 18 months horizon+6.5% vs SPY +0.6% · alpha +5.9%
MSFT MicrosoftLONG

An AI toll-road hiding inside a software annuity: Azure share gains and Copilot upsell monetize the AI capex the market treats as a leak.

Pitched 2026-07-15 · 12 to 24 months horizon+31.9% vs SPY +0.1% · alpha +31.8%
V VisaLONG

A toll on the disappearance of cash: an asset-light network that earns a fee on every transaction and takes none of the credit risk.

Pitched 2026-07-15 · 18 to 36 months horizon+16.5% vs SPY +0.1% · alpha +16.3%
GOOGL AlphabetLONG

The widest moat in tech — Search, YouTube, and a now-profitable cloud — compounding through the AI transition, with Waymo and DeepMind as free options on top.

Pitched 2026-07-15 · 12 to 24 months horizon-24.6% vs SPY +0.1% · alpha -24.7%
ASML ASML HoldingLONG

The one company AI cannot be built without: the sole supplier of the EUV lithography that every leading-edge chip requires, with a decade-plus moat and an installed-base annuity.

Pitched 2026-07-15 · 24 to 36 months horizon-13.7% vs SPY +0.1% · alpha -13.9%
LLY Eli LillyLONG

Selling the decade's biggest new drug market at a widening lead — the obesity TAM is early, under-penetrated, and Lilly's pipeline extends the moat.

Pitched 2026-07-15 · 24 to 48 months horizon+22.6% vs SPY +0.1% · alpha +22.4%
RACE FerrariLONG

Hermès with an engine: Ferrari caps production below demand and sells scarcity, earning luxury-goods economics the market still half-prices as an automaker.

Pitched 2026-07-15 · 24 to 48 months horizon+5.4% vs SPY +0.1% · alpha +5.3%
Educational research project. Nothing here is investment advice. Sample pitches exist to demonstrate the framework and are labeled as such.